Energy markets have long influenced logistics costs, but recent disruptions have pushed this relationship into sharper focus. Volatility in oil and LNG transit routes, combined with geopolitical pressures, has transformed energy from a background variable into a primary cost driver for global supply chains. At the same time, regulatory change in Europe is reshaping how goods move across borders.
EU Customs Reform should not be viewed as a simple tightening of compliance requirements. Instead, it represents a structural reset of cross-border trade, particularly for eCommerce and low-value shipments.
One of the most significant aspects of this reform is its phased implementation. From 2026, low-value consignments will face a €3 duty alongside a €2 handling fee. By 2028, a full tariff and VAT regime will apply, effectively removing the advantages previously associated with low-value imports. These changes are designed to address systemic challenges within the current model, including under-declaration and lost tax revenue.
The scale of the issue is substantial. With approximately 4.6 billion parcels entering the EU annually, and projections rising to 5.8 billion, the volume of low-value shipments has created both operational strain and regulatory gaps. Estimates suggest that 60–65% of consignments are underreported, contributing to a VAT loss of around €7.4 billion.
Alongside these financial measures, a key structural change is the shift in responsibility. Online platforms will increasingly act as the Importer of Record, taking on full compliance obligations. This includes accurate declaration of goods, duty and VAT payments, and adherence to product safety requirements. Failure to comply may result in fines ranging from 1% to 6%, adding further pressure on businesses operating within already tight margins.
The combined effect of these developments is a notable increase in logistics and compliance costs. For many operators, costs may rise by 15% to 60%, particularly in segments reliant on low-value, high-volume shipments. As a result, business models that depend on minimal margins are becoming less viable.
This is driving a broader shift across the industry. Price competitiveness alone is no longer sufficient. Instead, success increasingly depends on data accuracy, compliance capability, and operational transparency. Direct-to-consumer models based on cross-border mail are gradually giving way to more structured supply chains, often incorporating regional warehousing and fulfilment strategies.
Localisation is becoming a key response. By positioning inventory closer to end markets, businesses can reduce exposure to customs complexity, improve delivery times, and stabilise costs. However, this approach requires a higher level of operational planning and integration.
At NG Terminal, we support this transition through a combination of infrastructure, expertise, and technology. Our UK gateway services and bonded warehousing solutions allow goods to be stored under duty suspension, providing flexibility and improved cash flow management. This is particularly valuable in an environment where cost predictability is increasingly important.
Our compliance-led approach ensures that customs processes are handled accurately and efficiently, reducing the risk of delays or penalties. At the same time, our MyNGT platform provides real-time visibility across shipments, enabling businesses to maintain control over their operations and respond quickly to changing conditions.
We also support the transition from traditional B2C models to more resilient B2B2C structures. By integrating local fulfilment with cross-border expertise, businesses can align with evolving regulatory frameworks while maintaining service quality.
These changes are not temporary disruptions. They represent a long-term transformation in how global trade operates. Energy costs, regulatory requirements, and consumer expectations are converging to reshape supply chains at a fundamental level.
For businesses engaged in cross-border commerce, the message is clear. Waiting for harmonisation or stability is not a strategy. Preparation, adaptability, and compliance will define success in this new landscape.
Follow NGT for further updates.
Contact NGT at ngtbd@ng-terminal.com to support your business growth.
